Bifurcation and Retention Rate in BSS Middle Schools

This research report examines the student retention and bifurcation trends during the critical transition from middle school (Class 8) to secondary school (Class 9) across Beaconhouse Pakistan. Using quantitative methods and five years of institutional data (2014–2018 for Class 8 and 2015–2019 for Class 9), the study investigates two key hypotheses:

Student numbers decline during the transition from middle to secondary level.

The proportion of students opting for the Matriculation (SSC) stream has increased in recent years compared to O’ Levels (GCE).

Findings show an average national retention rate of 88.9%, with minor yearly fluctuations. The South region consistently demonstrated the highest retention (average 93.15%), followed by Centre (90.6%) and North (79.22%). While enrolments in Class 9 (O’ Levels) declined by 26.1% between 2015 and 2018, Matric enrolments remained stable or slightly increased, indicating a gradual but notable shift toward the Matric stream.

Regional analysis revealed that Centre has the highest new enrolments in both streams, while the North shows a significant decline, particularly in Matric. At the cluster level, patterns varied, with some clusters introducing Matric in recent years and others phasing it out. These disparities suggest that local factors — including school availability, parental preferences, leadership practices, academic results, and socioeconomic trends — significantly influence bifurcation and retention.

The report concludes that while BSS retains a strong majority of its students, retention challenges persist, particularly in the North and in sustaining O’ Level enrolments. Future stages of research will include parent and student surveys to explore perceptions, motivations, and barriers behind school and stream selection, followed by an analysis of O’ Level to A’ Level transition trends.